Today the Spanish President/Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a General Election for July 23rd. Unless you are Spanish or Nationalised Spanish then you won't have a vote. We foreigners generally only get to vote locally.
I saw this summing up of the situation on Twitter. It was written, in Twitter like style, by a bloke called Michael Reid. He mentions his book at the end so, given I've pinched his article I left the book plug in. I thought it was pretty good. I might not agree 100% but as a summing up in 450 words or so it's excellent. I thought other immigrants might be interested too.
Just in case you don't know ETA was a Nationalist Terror Group in the Basque Country.
Spain: To try to explain Pedro Sánchez's decision to call a snap election for 23/7, a thread on Spanish politics, which have become a complicated world of coalitions.
A two-party system has been replaced by two blocks, plus assorted nationalists and regionalists. To became Prime Minister in a censure motion in 2018, Sánchez crossed a red line set by previous Socialist leaders, building a parliamentary alliance with Catalan separatists and Bildu, the post-ETA party, and in 2020 forming a coalition government with far-left Podemos. Meanwhile the base of the mainstream opposition People's Party (PP) had splintered into three, with Ciudadanos a would-be liberal party towards the centre and Vox emerging on the hard-right, initially in response to Catalan separatism.
Sánchez governed fairly effectively at first, dealing with the pandemic crisis and strengthening the welfare state. But to hold his coalition together, he veered left last summer, pushing through badly drafted Podemos laws on sexual consent, trans and animal rights. To keep his Catalan allies happy he also approved ad hominem changes to the penal code to prevent further trials of separatist leaders. All this alienated many more centrist Socialist voters as the local elections showed.
The PP won 31.5% of the vote, the Socialists 28.1%. Not a landslide but enough for Socialist-led coalitions to lose power in at least 5 and probably 6 of the 9 regions they were defending, as well as losing mayors in iconic Socialist cities such as Seville and Valladolid. Ciudadanos was wiped out yesterday. But the far-left, too, is starting to fall apart, split between Podemos and its former allies by a power struggle between Pablo Iglesias, its founding leader, and his successor Yolanda Díaz. Bildu, which has yet to make a full criticism of ETA's terrorism, made gains in the Basque Country, where it is challenging the moderate Basque National Party, and Navarre, even though several of its candidates had formerly been imprisoned for ETA killings or woundings. The PP did well, but it will depend on Vox in several places to form local administrations.
And that is behind Sánchez's calculation in calling the snap election. Because if the PP allies with Vox it is hard for it to gain many other allies in Spain's increasingly fragmented parliament.The snap election is a bold gamble typical of Sánchez. He clearly senses a better chance of assembling a parliamentary majority now than later. But it is his riskiest bet: inflation has hurt Spaniards, moderate Socialist mayors and regional leaders blame him for defeat. The election will be very close, but the right starts as narrow favourites to form a government.
For more background, see my new book "Spain: the Trials and Triumphs of a Modern European Country." Thanks if you've read this far.
